CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 07/07 - 06Z TUE 08/07 2003
ISSUED: 06/07 22:19Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

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General thunderstorms are forecast across the Ebro valley region, the Po plains and the southern Alps, the northern North Sea, parts of southern Sweden and Norway, northeastern Poland, much of the western Russian Federation, Belarus, the Ukraine, Moldova, the Karpates mountains and parts of the Black Sea and central Turkey

SYNOPSIS

Less than a slight risk. A zonal jet is present over the northeastern atlantic having a northern branch into northern scandinavia and a weaker branch into central Europe. A small but intense vorticity maximum is propagating eastward over the northern British Isles eastward to southern scandinavia during the period. Some scattered thunder may occur ahead of this system. A broad upper low is almost stationary over the russian central plateau. A couple of vorticity maxima rotating around the low provide lift sustaining a few MCS's working their way northward over the Don valley region and the central plateau. No organised severe weather is expected with this activity.

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